Indy Home & Design- Ruoff Report --- Down Payments

April 4th Jobs Report

Looking ahead to the March 7th Jobs Report

A quick info piece on rates. Yesterday the market moved negatively…ever so slightly but about a half discount point. But if I had to guess it was the wrong direction based on the data I am seeing today. The ADP jobs report missed pretty considerably and the January numbers were revised lower (See pic at bottom of this post). Jobs reports that miss the consensus (expectation) are negative to the stock market and positive to the bond market. If investors believe the jobs market is improving you will see the stock market improve and bond market (our mortgage rates) worsen as a general rule. If the jobs market is weak you will tend to have a weaker stock market and a stronger bond market (rates improved).

The big test is this Friday’s Government Jobs Report. This report has a heavier impact to the markets than the ADP Jobs report. If the report misses expectations then we could (and should) see rates improve. The report comes out at 8:30am on March 7. And just now the ISM Index dropped to a 4-year low showing signs the employment sector is losing ground. In short, I believe this points to a weaker economy, weaker stock market, stronger bond market and opportunity for better rates on Friday compared to where we stand today. I’ll let you know the results of the Jobs Report on Friday.

Some Local Real Estate Stats for Year End 2013 Activity

Local Market Review: Sales Pace Slows, Prices Get a Lift

Housing data released by MIBOR today shows a slower pace of closed and pended sales through November 2013 with a continued bump in pricing. As expected, the decrease in pended sales witnessed in October resulted in less robust closed sales for November with closed sales down 3.9 percent for the month; the first decrease of 2013. Closed sales are strong across the year however, up 18 percent for the last 12 months and up 5.4 percent in the quarter ending in November. According to the MIBOR Monthly Indicators Report, prices maintain a steady climb with median sales price up 5.4 percent for the quarter, and up 4.8 for the month of November.  Average sales increased 5.7 percent in November and 5.1 percent for the quarter ending in November. The current average sales price in central Indiana is $168,342; median sales price is $132,000. Inventory is at an even five months. Along with the Monthly Indicators Report, a one-page report of each county within the service area is also provided. In total, these data sets are intended to be a snapshot of the market, providing historical comparisons whenever possible. The data was pulled from the BLC® listing service on December 17. To download the Monthly Indicators report, click here. To view the one-page county reports, click here. Please note, due to the length of the reports, it may take a few minutes to download. If you have questions regarding the data, please click here.

Mortgage Rates to Continue to Rise???

The market this week is betting on a good jobs report, and rates continuing to rise. Friday, we give the full update. Here is what CNBC thinks as of today...

Recent Indianapolis Area Housing Stats Released

Local Market Review: Activity and Prices Climb, Pending Sales Dip

Housing data released by MIBOR today shows continued strong sales and price activity through October 2013 with a weakening in pending sales activity. The slowing trend of pending sales in the last few months has resulted in the first negative metric all year with pending sales in October down 1.8 percent from October 2012. Closed sales still performed well increasing 6.6 percent in October and up 11.6 for the quarter ending in October. According to the MIBOR Monthly Indicators Report, prices maintain a steady climb with median sales price up 4.9 percent for the quarter, and up 5 percent for the month of October.  Average sales increased 4.9 percent in October and 4.4 percent for the quarter ending in October. The current average sales price in central Indiana is $165,916; median sales price is $132,500. Months of inventory dipped to 5.3 months. Along with the Monthly Indicators Report, a one-page report of each county within the service area is also provided. In total, these data sets are intended to be a snapshot of the market, providing historical comparisons whenever possible. The data was pulled from the BLC® listing service on November 18. To download the Monthly Indicators report, click here. To view the one-page county reports, click here. Please note, due to the length of the reports, it may take a few minutes to download. If you have questions regarding the data, please click here.

Mortgage Rate Update after Fed Minutes Released

A quick hitter today. The Federal Reserve released the minutes from their most recent meeting today along with current commentary from Fed Member James Bullard drives rates higher.

Mortgage Bonds began the day with some positive gains and we tested prices and rates seen the day of the Jobs Report from the 8th. But then the Fed Minutes and Bullard's words now driving us back down to near Nov 8th levels.

This proves a small point that streaks are made to be broken (see previous post). A few words out of a Fed Member has driven the Bond AND Stock Market into the negative today. These reactions are pretty fascinating...and by fascinating I mean ridiculous. Bond traders shrug off a report where existing home sales disappointed today...missing the target by over 3%. This drop in bond prices and rise in rates is one that will be reversed. There is still no good news floating out there other than a jobs report that may be revised next month for the worse (what I am anticipating). For now, hope you took our advice and locked two days ago. For current loans not locked, float your rate. I feel a change in sentiment coming yet this week.